Friday, May 02, 2014

THUNDERBOLTS UPDATE


May 2, 2014

Greetings Friends!

Rolling right along with the editing of recorded talks at EU2014. We've now heard from numerous attendees, all agreeing that the event was an interdisciplinary extravaganza, our best event so far, underscoring the essential role of critical review and innovation in the sciences. This week we've posted Piers Corbyn's talk on the many foibles in standard approaches to "climate change" and AP David's insights as to how mathematicians too often create the appearance of a religion in their approaches to theoretical questions. 

This week we also owe a special thank you to filmmaking student Jack Passmore, who has prepared an enchanting video/slide review of this year's conference. Stay tuned for that next week. 

~Dave Talbott

FEATURED YOUTUBE VIDEOS FOR THE WEEK
Piers Corbyn: The Reality of Long Range Weather and Climate Forecasting | EU2014 

Piers Corbyn described the failure of standard meteorology (SM) in outlook, theory, and practice.  He included: signals in real meteorology data unexplained by SM; real role of jet stream, stratosphere, electro-jets, magnetosphere, solar wind, solar corona, and the Moon; the total inability of SM to explain: sudden stratospheric warmings . . . 
AP David: On the Laws of Nature | EU2014

AP David's talk considered the sources of the modern idea of 'Laws of Nature,' or as they are more usually known nowadays, 'physical laws.' He began by articulating the difference between descriptive and prescriptive laws: nature as directly observed versus nature idealized into geometric or other mathematical relationships. 

THUNDERBOLTS PICTURE OF THE DAY
The Cosmic Web Imager
May 2, 2014

Make room for "dim matter." The Intergalactic Medium (IGM) is where galaxies are born, according to standard theories; it is also where they live. It is thought to be a diffuse gas connecting all galaxies in the Universe. 
Polar Mesospheric Clouds
Apr 30, 2014

Could noctilucent clouds be part of Earth's auroral phenomena? On April 25, 2007 NASA launched the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) spacecraft on a multi-year mission to study the highest visible clouds, otherwise known as polar mesospheric clouds, or noctilucent clouds. 
Galactic Maelstrom
Apr 28, 2014

Can the Universe be weighed in the balance?What causes the formation of compact galactic clumps and filaments? One proposal is that gravitational "tidal forces" pull stars and gas out of other galaxies as they pass by each other. 

THUNDERBOLTS FORUM HIGHLIGHTS


Electric Universe
Magnetic Reconnection: Plasma Physics 101
Astrophysicists misinterpret the release of energy from a magnetic field.

Electric Universe
Article: A Dissident View of Relativity Theory
Here is a fascinating look at the iconoclastic ideas of William H. Cantrell.

Electric Universe
Is the Universe 13.8 Billion Years Old?
The Electric Universe makes no speculation as to the age of the universe.

Electric Universe
Stellar Nucleosynthesis for an Electric Star
This thread examines the  role of fusion in the Electric Star model.

Electric Universe - Planetary Science
Electric Titan
Forum members focus on the largest satellite in the Saturnian system.

Electric Universe
Debating Against Lambda-CDM, including the New Bicep2 paper
What is the significance of large scale patterns of polarized photons in the cosmos?

Electric Universe - Planetary Science
Type of Close Encounter to Cause Valles Marineris on Mars
Consideration is given to the forces required to electrically excavate a Martian canyon.

Electric Universe - Planetary Science
Another Dramatic Meteor/asteroid in Russia
A spectacular event is captured by an automobile dash cam.


Note: The opinions expressed by forum members do not necessarily reflect those of The Thunderbolts Project(TM) staff.

With much apreciation,
~A.

Into your 80's.....

Healthy aging into your 80s and beyond

5 keys to a long, healthful life

Published: May 2014
Illustration: Oliver Munday

Sixty years ago an American who made it to 65 could expect to live an additional 14 years. Today, it's 19 years. The most important question then: how to grow older healthfully so that we can actually enjoy those extra years? A ­Con­sumer Reports survey of 2,066 Americans age 50 and older ­revealed that we're eager to maintain our quality of life into retirement and far, far beyond.

"Whether you're just starting to think about your golden years or are well into retirement, it turns out that most of us have pretty similar goals: remaining independent, keeping mentally sharp, and staying as mobile as possible," said Fernando Torres-Gil, Ph.D., director of the UCLA Center for Policy Research on Aging.

But that kind of successful aging requires savvy planning and decision-making. Our survey found that multiple chronic illnesses, shelves full of medications, and numerous medical specialists are common for Americans older than 50, so lining up good health care and managing it smartly are important. We also discovered that mobility decreases dramatically as you age; 33 percent of those older than 80 have difficulty walking, and more than 25 percent have a tough time simply getting out of chairs, so a fitness plan that maintains strength, flexibility, and balance is vital. Our survey group told us that their current home was the top choice of where to live as they aged and needed more care. But the ability to do so is highly dependent on the home's location and physical features. Also, maintaining an active social network for yourself and being a lifelong learner are the best ways to reduce the risk of cognitive decline, the situation that respondents feared most about old age.

(Read the earlier reports in our series on managing your health and health care: "The Nurse Practioner Will See You Now," "A Doctor's Office That's All About You," and "Your Doctor Will E-mail You Now.")

The good news: No matter whether you've just hit 50 or are well on your way toward the century mark, there are strategies that can help you stay healthy, keep you socially and intellectually engaged in the world around you, and create a living situation that is comfortable and safe.

1. Managing your health

Three out of four of those we surveyed had at least one health condition, such as high blood pressure, arthritis, or dia­betes—and 31 percent had three or more.

"You're likely to end up with multiple doctors, not all of whom are coordinated with each other," said Daniel Callahan, Ph.D., a medical ethicist specializing in aging (who, at 83, says "I've now got a chance to study myself"). "The basic question is who's in charge here anyway?"

It's not easy to get your arms around the complexities of modern health care. But if you assemble a capable team and take ­advantage of some of the recent improvements in the way doctors are organizing their services, you can minimize confusion. What are the most important items on your medical to-do list?

A great primary care doctor

This person (usually an internist or family practitioner) should be your main point of contact with the health care system. Seventy-two percent of our survey respondents said they already have such a doctor, but if you don't, find one now and make an appointment for an initial visit. Look for a physician whose practice is a "patient-centered medical home." That means the doctor's office has organized itself to quarterback all of your care, including alerting you when it's time for a test or visit, intervening if it looks like you're likely to develop type 2 diabetes or high blood pressure, keeping tabs on all of your medications, and coordinating care with your specialists. That last point is crit­ical; about three-quarters of survey re­spondents 65 and older said they had seen two or more specialists in the previous year. (Read more about patient-centered medical homes.)

Well-managed medications

Among respondents 80 and older, 72 percent took at least three prescription medications, and 84 percent took three or more over-­the-­counter medications, including vitamins and nutritional supplements.

"People are on five, 10, 20 medications," Mary Tinetti, M.D., chief of geriatric medicine at the Yale New Haven Health System and the Yale School of Medicine, said. "And nobody thinks that 20 medications are beneficial." A least once a year, you should put all of your pill bottles in a bag (including all over-the-counter drugs and supplements) and take them to your primary care doctor for a review. Make a note of any side effects or problems you've noticed. If it turns out your medications are working at cross-­purposes or causing unacceptable side effects, ask your doctor to work out the optimum combination of medications. Also keep an up-to-date list of your drugs (including dosages) in your wallet or handbag in case of a medical emergency. (Learn more about managing your medications.)

Health-insurance savvy

Carefully go through your health plan's requirements, so you really know how it works and whether you need to get referrals for specialist visits or prior authorization for elective surgery or costly tests. Not following those rules could result in a nasty surprise on your bill. You can find all of that information in your plan's summary of benefits and coverage, a standardized plan-information document that should have come with your policy. (If it didn't, ask for it.)

A few months ahead of your 65th birthday, be sure to enroll in Medicare. The process can be complicated, especially if you are still working at a job with health benefits, so study up at Medicare.gov or at Consumer Reports' Medicare information page. Review your plan choices every year at open enrollment.

2. Keeping your body strong

Illustration: Oliver Munday

One of the ongoing effects of aging is loss of muscle mass. If you don't do anything to fight it, you could find yourself unable to get out of an armchair or off the toilet one day. Aging also brings declines in aerobic capacity and flexibility. And those factors together increase your risk of falls—at a time in life when bones tend to be more brittle. Eighteen percent of our survey respondents said they had fallen in the last year, and of those, 71 percent were injured, including 8 percent who broke a bone.

Here's a quick test to find out whether your fitness has deteriorated to a point that puts you at risk: Time how long it takes you to get out of an armchair, walk 10 feet, walk back, and sit down again. A healthy adult older than 60 should be able to do it in 10 seconds or less.

Flunked the test? The good news is that it's never too late to start working out to counter aging's effects. "There's no medication, no medical device that has anywhere near the effectiveness of physical activity," Tinetti said.

Here are some concrete steps you can take, based on recommendations from experts at the American Heart Association and American College of Sports Medicine.

Get a physical-therapy evaluation

Ask your doctor to prescribe a consultation with a licensed physical therapist who can help you design a safe exercise program.

Do 150 minutes of cardio every week

Aim for at least 30 minutes at a time of moderate-intensity aerobic exercise (think a brisk walk where you're not breathing so hard that you can't carry on a conversation) five days per week. For motivation, consider using an activity tracker; the Fitbit One is our top-rated model.

Add strength training

You should strength train on two or three nonconsecutive days each week and do eight to 10 exercises targeting the muscles of your upper body, lower body, and core. Start slowly and work up to a weight or resistance that causes fatigue after eight to 14 repetitions. If you have problems with your joints or bones, consult a certified trainer or physical ther­apist before starting a program.

Keep your balance

One of the simplest exercises is to practice standing on one leg. Also consider tai chi, which numerous studies have shown improves balance and reduces the risk of falls. Find local classes by putting "tai chi" and the name of your city into a search engine.

Stay flexible

Yoga is great for improving your flexibility. But clear the idea with your doctor first if you have any chronic problems, find a qualified instructor, and make sure he or she knows about any physical limitations you have.

3. Staying mentally sharp

The older Americans we surveyed said that losing their cognitive abilities was their No. 1 fear about aging. Nothing you do will protect you 100 percent from developing Alzheimer's disease or other forms of dementia, but there are ways to reduce your risk:

Remain physically fit

Follow the fitness advice in the previous section because staying physically active decreases the risk of cognitive decline.

Stay socially engaged

Our survey found that our social lives start to dwindle even before retirement; 43 percent of respondents ages 50 to 64 said they spent less time with friends than they had a decade previously. Keep in contact with family and friends, and expand your social circle by volunteering, attending local cultural events, taking continuing-education classes at a local college or traveling with a group such as Road Scholars (formerly known as Elderhostel).

Learn something new

Crossword puzzles or Luminosity aren't enough, especially if you've been doing them for years. The key to brain fitness is to establish new neural connections by taking on fresh mental challenges. Try learning a new foreign language or taking lessons on a new musical instrument.

4. Living independently

Fifty-five percent of our respondents wanted to stay in their own homes, with help as needed, as they got older and required more care. But a recent AARP survey revealed that only about half of older adults thought their homes could accommodate them "very well" as they age; 12 percent said "not well" or "not well at all."

"The time to think about your housing options is when you first retire and are relatively healthy and young," said Linda Fodrini-­Johnson, a geriatric-care manager in Walnut Creek, Calif. "You need to think realistically about the things that might happen over the next 20 years."

If you want to "age in place," here are some modifications to consider if your home doesn't already have them.

  • Ground-floor sleeping space. Adding a first-floor bedroom and bath would be great, but at an average cost of $225,000, according to Remodeling Magazine, it might be out of reach. A more cost-effective option might be converting a den into a bedroom and expanding the ground-floor powder room into a full bath.
  •  Bathroom safety features. Replace the tub with a roomy shower that has no threshold to step over. Add grab bars and a shower seat. Install a "comfort height" toilet seat, 2 inches taller than usual, that's easier to get off of.
  • Lever-type doorknobs and faucet handles. They're easier to turn for people with stiff or weak hands and arms.
  • Chairlift. If your stairs are wide enough (37 inches is the recommended minimum) you can install an electric chairlift. But they are expensive—more than $10,000, depending on needed modifications, models, and specifications.

Here are some more "aging-in-place" renovation ideas

The National Association of Home Builders has a searchable list of Certified Aging-in-Place Specialists with special training in designing and building aging-friendly home renovations. 

Check to see whether you already live in an area served by a village, a membership network of people who are "aging in place" in their own homes with the help of services such as rides to the doctor, home maintenance and repair, computer troubleshooting, social events, in-home medical care, and light housekeeping in exchange for a monthly or annual fee. Find one near you at Village to Village Network.

5. Moving to an easier home

Illustration: Oliver Munday

Renovations and villages aren't an option for everyone. You might find yourself struggling to take care of a big yard or feeling isolated because driving at night has become difficult. Those may be signs that it's time to relocate to a more aging-friendly home.

Ray Mack, 68, a retired chemist, reached that point after "one too many visits to the emergency room" for mishaps involving heavy machinery and yard maintenance on his 5-acre spread near Houston. He and his wife relocated to a house on a small lot in Baton Rouge, La., within walking distance of a university, museums, and parks.

Some features to look for include:

  • Entryways and interior doors without raised thresholds.
  • Wide hallways and doorways.
  • Bathroom, bedroom, and laundry on the main floor.
  • "Universal design" features such as levered door handles, grab bars in bathrooms, and a place to sit while preparing meals.
  • Services, shopping, transit, and recreational facilities within walking distance. Go to walkscore.com to calculate a neighborhood's walkability.

In certain areas you can also buy into a cohousing development. Cohousing features regular private homes built on small parcels and clustered around common facilities such as a recreation building where residents gather to share weekly meals and social events. The Cousing Organization of the United States has more information on this option, including a directory of communities. 

Or you might reach a point where even those types of homes are too much to manage. When? "If you realize you're not getting out at least three times a week," Fodrini-­Johnson said "When your vision is poor and you can't set your thermostats, or read your medicine bottle, or just don't have the stamina to take care of yourself."

Here are your top choices at that point.

  • Continuing-care retirement community. These developments offer a continuum of housing options, from regular independent apartments to assisted living to skilled nursing facilities, which residents can move among as their medical and physical needs dictate. But the buy-in can run from the low six figures up, with additional four-figure monthly fees for any extra services you might require. And, Fodrini-Johnson said, the communities might not accept you if you've already developed a serious ailment such as Parkinson's disease.
  • Assisted living. If you don't need skilled nursing care but can no longer manage on your own, assisted-livings offer some combination of housing, meals, help with daily-living tasks such as dressing and bathing, and, in some cases, help with medical tasks such as medication management. Prices and amenities vary widely.

Start your search at eldercare.gov, which will guide you to local agencies that can help you avoid unlicensed centers.

Illustration: Oliver Munday

Accountable Care Organizations: Introducing a new approach to good care

You may have received a notice that you've been assigned to an Accountable Care Organization, or ACO. Here's what it is and how it's supposed to work.


An ACO consists of a group of doctors, a hospital, or a combination of both, who have made a deal with either Medicare or a private insurance company that upends the usual financial incentives. Normally providers are paid a fee for every service they provide, even if it's to fix a mistake they made or isn't necessary to begin with. An ACO gets a financial bonus for providing safe and appropriate care that keeps patients healthy. It becomes "accountable" for the overall cost and quality of care of its assigned population.


ACOs that do a good job on quality measures, such as controlling diabetics' blood sugar or giving the appropriate medications to people with heart disease, share the savings with the insurance company or Medicare. In practice, that means giving extra attention to people with serious or multiple conditions. The first hospital-­led ACOs started up in 2010, and the first Medicare ACOs in 2012. Now almost 500 of them are in operation, covering more than 31 million patients.


If you're assigned to an ACO, it most likely means that your doctor's office is participating in one. You can opt out, but we recommend that you don't. Being in an ACO has no effect on your insurance coverage and doesn't restrict your ability to see the doctor of your choice. And if the ACO does a good job, your out-of-pocket costs might go down if you need fewer doctor visits or hospital stays to manage your condition.



~A.

Healthy Aging Into Your 80s and Beyond | Independent Living - Consumer Reports

http://www.consumerreports.org/content/cro/en/consumer-reports-magazine/z2014/June/howToLiveWellIntoYour80sAndBeyond.print.html

Just Do it....
~A.

Thursday, May 01, 2014

Scientists Reconnect Severed Nerves With Liquid Metal | Gizmodo Australia

Scientists Reconnect Severed Nerves With Liquid Metal | Gizmodo Australia

Scientists Reconnect Severed Nerves With Liquid Metal

Scientists Have Reconnected Severed Nerves with Liquid Metal

Get your T-1000 jokes ready, because we're one step closer to liquid metal-powered people. As a team of Chinese biomedical engineers recently used an alloy to close the gap between severed sciatic nerves in frogs. In effect, it made electronic circuits out of nerves — and it worked.

Shockingly, this sci-fi solution is as simple as it sounds. Looking for a way to keep muscles active while nerves healed, the Tsinghua University researchers identified liquid metal as a highly conductive but also safe material to bridge the gap. They decided on the liquid metal alloy gallium-indium-selenium, a benign material that's liquid at body temperature. (This liquid metal is not to be confused with the brand-name wonder material Liquidmetal, which is not actually a liquid.) The liquid metal alloy is also highly conductive.

Scientists Have Reconnected Severed Nerves with Liquid Metal

To test the alloy, the engineers applied an electric pulse to nerves in a frog leg so that the calf muscle would contract. They then severed the sciatic nerve and connected the two ends with either the liquid metal alloy or Ringer's solution, a mix of electrolytes that mimic body fluids. Sure enough, the Ringer's solution only carried the charge so far, while the liquid metal alloy transmitted the electrical signals about as well as the nerve before it had been severed. This means it could be used to protect muscles and nerves after an injury, and since it's metal, it can be easily removed with the help of an x-ray.

This is obviously the early stages of what could be an exciting new treatment for nerve injuries. It's also, arguably, the first step towards truly wired creature. Of course, we're probably closer to building a cyborg than you might think. [Technology Review]

We're gonna be outnumbered soon...

~A.

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

The Religious Makeup Of America - Business Insider


This Map Shows The Dominant Religious Group In Every US County

We recently came across this map, based on the 2010 census data, of the largest religious groups in each county of the U.S. 

Screen Shot 2013 12 06 at 3.37.15 PMA few observations from the perspective of 2013

  • The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, aka the Mormon Church, seems to have heeded Mark Twain's advice: "Buy land, they're not making it anymore." In November the Mormon Church bought 2% of Florida.
  • The Bible Belt, comprised mostly of Southern Baptists, is on full display and informs the strong social conservative strain that runs through American politics.
  • Catholics barely beat out the Southern Baptists for the highest number of counties with the most adherents. Catholicism's nationwide reach is reminiscent of widespread support of the Notre Dame football team:

"Millions of Catholics—whether Irish, Italian, German or Pole —lived vicariously through the wins and losses of Notre Dame's football teams. For that vastly immigrant population Notre Dame football symbolized the triumphs of an ostracized people. It also reflected the ascendancy of U.S. Catholics into the nation's mainstream."

  • Kansas, Illinois, Indiana, and West Virgina appear to have the most diversity when it comes to dominant religious groups. On the other side is Vermont and New Hampshire, which are considered the Godless states.
oy vey...
~A.



Tuesday, April 29, 2014

No Accounting Skills? No Moral Reckoning

No Accounting Skills? No Moral Reckoning - NYTimes.com - NYTimes.com

No Accounting Skills? No Moral Reckoning

SOMETIMES it seems as if our lives are dominated by financial crises and failed reforms. But how much do Americans even understand about finance? Few of us can do basic accounting and fewer still know what a balance sheet is. If we are going to get to the point where we can have a serious debate about financial accountability, we first need to learn some essentials.

The German economic thinker Max Weber believed that for capitalism to work, average people needed to know how to do double-entry bookkeeping. This is not simply because this type of accounting makes it possible to calculate profit and capital by balancing debits and credits in parallel columns; it is also because good books are "balanced" in a moral sense. They are the very source of accountability, a word that in fact derives its origin from the word "accounting."

Javier Jaén

In Renaissance Italy, merchants and property owners used accounting not only for their businesses but to make a moral reckoning with God, their cities, their countries and their families. The famous Italian merchant Francesco Datini wrote "In the Name of God and Profit" in his ledger books. Merchants like Datini (and later Benjamin Franklin) kept moral account books, too, tallying their sins and good acts the way they tallied income and expenditure.

One of the less sexy and thus forgotten facts about the Italian Renaissance is that it depended highly on a population fluent in accounting. At any given time in the 1400s, 4,000 to 5,000 of Florence's 120,000 inhabitants attended accounting schools, and there is ample archival evidence of even lowly workers keeping accounts.

This was the world in which Cosimo de' Medici and other Italians came to dominate European banking. It was understood that all landowners and professionals would know and practice basic accounting. Cosimo de' Medici himself did yearly audits of the books of all his bank branches; he also personally kept the accounts for his household. This was typical in a world where everyone from farmers and apothecaries to merchants — even Niccolò Machiavelli — knew double-entry accounting. It was also useful in political office in republican Florence, where government required a certain amount of transparency.

If we want to know how to make our own country and companies more accountable, we would do well to study the Dutch. In 1602, they invented modern capitalism with the foundation of the first publicly traded company — the Dutch East India Company — and the first official stock market in Amsterdam. But it was through an older and well-maintained culture of accountability that they kept these institutions stable for a century. The spread of double-entry accounting to the Netherlands during the early 1500s made the country the center of accounting education, world trade and early capitalism. Well-accounted-for provincial tax returns allowed the Dutch to float bonds at dependable 4 percent interest rates. The Dutch trusted their managers to know how to keep good books and make regular interest payments, while paying off state debt.

Every level of Dutch society practiced double-entry accounting — from prostitutes to scholars, merchants and even the Stadholder, Maurice of Nassau, Prince of Orange. Painters regularly depicted merchants keeping their books; Quentin Metsys' "The Money Changers" (circa 1549) showed that even skilled accountants could be fraudulent. In other words, the advantages and pitfalls of accounting were at the fore of public consciousness.

Not only did the Dutch have basic financial management skills, they were also acutely aware of the concept of balanced books, audits and reckonings. They had to be. If local water board administrators kept bad books, the Dutch dyke and canal system would not be well maintained, and the country risked catastrophic flooding.

This desire for accountability was what pushed the Dutch to reform their financial system when it began to collapse under the weight of fraud. The first shareholder revolt happened in 1622, among Dutch East India Company investors who complained that the company account books had been "smeared with bacon" so that they might be "eaten by dogs." The investors demanded a "reeckeninge," a proper financial audit.

While the state did not allow the Dutch East India Company's books to be audited in public, Prince Maurice did do a serious internal audit, and Dutch burghers were satisfied with both company and state accountability. A cultural ideal was set. For the next century, it became common practice for public administrators to have portraits of themselves painted with their account books — sometimes with real calculations in them — open, for all to see.

These historical examples point the way toward achievable solutions to our own crises. Over the past half century, people have stopped learning double-entry bookkeeping — so much so that few know what it means — leaving it instead to specialists and computerized banking. If we want stable, sustainable capitalism, a good place to start would be to make double-entry accounting and basic finance part of the curriculum in high school, as they were in Renaissance Florence and Amsterdam.

A population well-versed in double-entry accounting will not immediately solve our complex financial problems, but it would allow average citizens to understand the nuts and bolts of finance: balance sheets, mortgage interest, depreciation and long-term risk. It would also give them a clearer sense of what financial accountability really means and of how to ask for and assess audits. The explosion of data-driven journalism should also include a subset of reporters with training in accounting so that they can do a better job of explaining its central role in our economy and financial crises.

Without a society trained in accountability, one thing is certain: There will be more reckonings to come.

Jacob Soll, a professor of history and accounting at the University of Southern California, is the author, most recently, of "The Reckoning: Financial Accountability and the Rise and Fall of Nations."

A version of this article appears in print on 04/28/2014, on page A21 of the NewYork edition with the headline: No Accounting Skills? No Moral Reckoning.

...first in line for (long overdue) accounting class....
~A.